Neafie, Jessica, Maracchione, Frank, McGarry, Ciara and Aigerim Aibassova. (2026). Audiences, contexts, and cues: explaining divergent public perceptions of China in Central Asia. Post-Soviet Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2026.2715664
I am so happy to announce the publication on Post-Soviet Affairs of the first open access academic article of a series we are preparing on Central Asian public opinion on China. This paper develops our previous Central Asia Barometer report and proposes a data-based analysis that diverges from traditional accounts which have focused on Sinophobia and did not explore the drivers of support for Chinese presence in the region, with a special attention to economic aspects.
We find that perceived economic benefits, especially employment creation and infrastructure improvements, are the most consistent and significant predictors of favourable attitudes towards China. By contrast, perceived economic risks, including concerns about debt dependency and land acquisition, have only weak and uneven effects. Interestingly, geopolitical concerns, particularly fears that closer ties with China could strain relations with Russia, are some of the most robust predictors of negative sentiment.
We also dedicate a central section to regional differences in public opinion, arguing that researchers on China in Central Asia needs to leave capital cities and travel to the regions as those are the places where Chinese presence is felt more strongly including through popular reaction.
Thank you Jessica Neafie, PhD for leading the team and Ciara McGarry and Aigerim Aibassova for the great work! With the hope to see more Central Asia Barometer surveys in the future!
Read here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1060586X.2026.2715664?needAccess=true.
Frank Maracchione 